It has become extremely popular among NFL draft analysts to pair the New Orleans Saints with Nebraska outside linebacker Randy Gregory at pick No. 13 in recent mock drafts. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. became the latest to do so in his Mock Draft 4.0 .
However, I still don't expect it to happen.
I think Gregory will either go higher if teams aren't too concerned about his admitted struggles with marijuana use in college (and his failed drug test at the NFL scouting combine) -- or he'll tumble lower if they are concerned.
What I don't expect to see is New Orleans emerging as the one team willing to roll the dice on Gregory while others pass on him -- especially since the Saints have been stressing the importance of maturity and professionalism more than ever in recent months after citing that as a problem during their 7-9 season in 2014.
It's tough to predict just how much Gregory's draft stock will be affected league-wide. ESPN's Ashley Fox did an excellent job diving into that subject this week in this piece, which included quotes from current and former NFL executives. The biggest concern seems to be whether the marijuana issues show a lack of caring or commitment. As ESPN analyst Louis Riddick said, “There are a lot of red flares. Not red flags. Red flares.”
So what are mock drafters to do? ... Well, the trend seems to be dropping Gregory out of the top 10 -- but not too far out of the top-10, with the Saints as a popular landing spot.
Purely from a football standpoint, Gregory does make sense for the Saints. I'd rank pass-rusher as their No. 1 need, and Gregory is among the elite pass-rushing prospects in this year's class. He had 17 ½ sacks and 29 tackles for loss in two years at Nebraska after transferring from Arizona Western junior college.
There are some questions about Gregory's size (he's 6-foot-4 but only 235 pounds). But he was widely rated as a top-10 prospect before the news of his failed drug test.
If the other four top pass rushing prospects (Florida's Dante Fowler, Clemson's Vic Beasley, Missouri's Shane Ray and Kentucky's Bud Dupree) are all gone before the Saints pick at 13, they'll have a decision to make. But I don't think they'll reach based solely on a positional need unless they're sold on Gregory.
The Saints could just as easily use that No. 13 pick on a cornerback, defensive lineman, wide receiver or offensive lineman.
Kiper's pick of USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor to the Saints at No. 31 makes more sense.
I do think New Orleans will jump on a receiver at some point during the first three rounds, and the value seems decent for Agholor here. Kiper described the 6-foot, 198-pounder as a very good route runner with good hands and as “quietly an explosive athlete” who can create space underneath or beat defenses over the top.
It's worth noting that Kiper had seven receivers going in Round 1 -- and none of them were Oklahoma's Dorial Green-Beckham, who has tantalizing size and speed but off-the-field concerns of his own. Green-Beckham could be around when the Saints pick at No. 31 and again at No. 44 in Round 2, which could lead to another risk-reward choice.
