Drew Brees may seem like a boring fantasy football choice in his 16th season. But if the rest of the owners in your league are willing to let the New Orleans Saints quarterback fall to you in the middle rounds of your draft, then you should be awfully excited about your team. Here is my analysis of how Brees’ numbers will fare against ESPN’s projections for 2016:
Drew Brees
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 4,764 yards, 31.3 TDs, 15.5 INTs
Over or under: I don’t have a big problem with any of these numbers. But I’ll definitely take the over, considering Brees has thrown for at least 4,870 yards in each of the past five seasons and at least 32 TDs in each of the past eight -- even when he missed a game with a shoulder injury last year.
I understand why the fantasy experts have to project a little bit of regression in those numbers -- eventually Father Time will catch up with the 37-year-old Brees. But there’s no reason to expect that to happen this season. Brees looks sharp and healthy. And now he is surrounded by even more dynamic playmakers with veteran tight end Coby Fleener and rookie receiver Michael Thomas joining 2015 breakout receivers Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead.
The offensive line isn’t as spectacular as it was in 2009 and 2011 (when Brees threw for a ridiculous 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns). But that has been the case for the last few years, and Brees still flirts with 5,000 yards and 35-40 TDs every season.
