Did Ken Whisenhunt make the right call when the Tennessee Titans went for it on a late fourth down?
ESPN Stats & Information looked at win probability out of the situations the Titans faced and could have faced as they related to Whisenhunt's fourth-and-1 decision against the Cleveland Browns.
The Titans didn't convert a Charlie Whitehurst sneak on fourth-and-1 from their own 42-yard line with 3:09 remaining and the Titans up 28-22.
That doesn't mean it was the wrong call.
According to ESPN's win probability model, it was the right call.
The Titans had a 87.8 percent chance of winning the game before the play in question.
In the past 10 seasons, NFL teams have converted 65 percent of fourth-and-1 plays.
Had the Titans converted their fourth-and-1 on Sunday, their win probability would have increased to 92.1 percent. A failure to convert and a turnover on downs at their own 42-yard line would drop their win probability to 73.8 percent.
So based on the past 10 seasons, out of the fourth-and-1 possibilities: 65 percent of the time, the Titans would have had a 92.1 percent chance of winning. And 35 percent of the time the Titans would have had a 73.8 percent chance of winning.
Weighing the chances of the two outcomes, the Titans had an 85.7 percent chance of winning by going for it.
If the Titans punted and pushed the Browns back to their 20-yard line, their win probability would have been 83.2 percent, a smaller percentage than going for it produced.
