Chalk Points are quick-hitting previews designed for on-the-go fans and recreational bettors looking for fundamental information. Here is the version for NBA bettors prior to the season.
3 Questions with ESPN NBA staff writer Tom Haberstroh
Q: NBA home teams went 584-618 against the spread (ATS) last season, according to BetLabsSports.com on SportsInsights. Not that anyone would ever do that, but just to demonstrate, if you bet $100 on every NBA home team last season, you lost $14,524. For much of last season, NBA's home-court advantage nearly disappeared. What's up with that?
A: This probably affected the gambling industry more than anything. Home-court advantage usually sits at around 3.5 points or 60 percent win percentage, but last season in January, I that it had dipped to its lowest point in NBA history (2.2 and 53.7 percent). The crazy thing was that home teams actually lost more close games than they won.
And then once that study got published, the home-court advantage roared back in a huge way in February, registering the best month on record in clutch situations. The home team went 54-26 when it should basically be a coin flip. In the playoffs, the home team won just under 60 percent of its games. The historical average is 65.1 percent.
What's going on? After talking to league execs, we cited referee monitoring at the league office, easier travel, NBA's 3-point dependency and apathetic attendees as possible factors. Dorothy used to say, "There's no place like home." But the road life ain't so bad anymore in the NBA.
Q: What are some of the most meaningful pace-of-play metrics out there?
A: You can use the traditional pace factor, which you can find on ESPN.com. That tells you the average number of possessions per 48 minutes. But that can miss stuff, too.
To help fill those gaps, NBA.com/stats is now publishing Synergy video tracking data, which can help parse which teams are fast on offense or defense. Here, you can see that 19 percent of Houston's offense was in transition, highest in the NBA; the Charlotte Hornets were half that. Perhaps more importantly, the Milwaukee Bucks had great transition defense, holding opponents to a league-low 11.9 percent and just 1.02 points per play. If your speedy team plays the Bucks, don't expect much redlining.
Keep an eye on the Washington Wizards. They've kicked up their pace from 93.7 last season to 104.1 this preseason per RealGM.com data. An extra 10 possessions per game is a huge number, but it's also unsustainable. I'd expect the Wizards, with John Wall and a new four-out offense, to rank top-10 this season, after ranking below average last season.
Q: Do your numbers suggest Sacramento could be a surprise team this season? If not the Kings, who do you expect to be this year's most improved team?
A: My Monopoly money is on the Celtics over (45.5 at the Westgate). They don't have a superstar, but they're stacked with good-not-great players, while most teams are forced to trot out below-replacement level players in their rotation. Amir Johnson is an analytics darling and Brad Stevens often makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts. In the East, that could be worth wins in the upper 40s.
The Kings are so confusing. DeMarcus Cousins shooting 3s? Who is starting next to him? Is Rajon Rondo going to play nice with George Karl, one of the bigger personalities in coaching circles? I'm not sold that the Kings are going to exceed expectations. Karl isn't playing in altitude anymore and I can't trust Rondo at this stage in his career. This team needs shooting and defense. In the West, a bunch of big names with incongruent parts won't cut it.
Coaching nuggets
(Coaching stats courtesy of BetLabsSports.com on SportsInsights)
-- Best coach ATS past 10 seasons (min. three):
Stan Van Gundy 268-226 (54.25 percent).
-- Best three coaches ATS at home past 10 seasons (min. three):
• Stan Van Gundy 139-114 ATS (54.90 percent)
• George Karl 139-114 ATS (54.90 percent)
• Gregg Popovich 219-196 ATS (52.77 percent)
-- Worst two coaches ATS at home past 10 seasons (min. three):
• Randy Wittman 93-120 ATS (43.66 percent)
• Rick Carlisle 174-207 ATS (45.66 percent)
-- Best three coaches ATS on the road past 10 seasons (min. three):
• Rick Carlisle 198-158 ATS (55.61 percent)
• Lionel Hollins 120-97 ATS (55.29 percent)
• Doc Rivers 216-180 ATS (54.54 percent)
-- Best coach ATS in October and November past 10 seasons: Gregg Popovich 81-62 (56.67 percent).
-- Worst coach ATS in October-November: Doc Rivers 57-73 (44.84 percent).
Odds and ends
Top 5 teams by money bet to win NBA championship at Westgate SuperBook:
1. Golden State
1a. San Antonio
2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Los Angeles Lakers
Top 5 teams by number of bets to win the NBA championship at Westgate SuperBook:
1. San Antonio
2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Golden State
5. Cleveland
