"The Big Handicapper" was never one of his many nicknames, but Shaquille O'Neal does share something with most sports bettors: He does not fully believe the Utah Jazz, the NBA's hottest team and top overall seed, are a true championship contender.
This week, the TNT commentator tried to backpedal critical comments he made directly to Jazz All-Star Donovan Mitchell on Jan. 22. However, we all know what he meant -- but he's not alone. The betting public also is dismissing the 20-5 Jazz.
Utah (12-1) is only the consensus fifth-favorite, behind the Los Angeles Lakers (+120), Brooklyn Nets (+400), Los Angeles Clippers (+550) and Milwaukee Bucks (10-1).
"I think a lot has to do with the marquee names on those teams, as opposed to just Donovan Mitchell, who's not even as much of a household name as guys like LeBron [James], Kyrie [Irving] and Giannis [Antetokounmpo]," Circa Sportsbook sports operations manager Jeff Benson told ESPN. "It's not like their roster is much different than what it was the last two or three years."
All four teams with lower odds have what Utah lacks: a multiple league MVP and/or Finals MVP leading the way, which reinforces an age-old concept. The betting public likes to back something it already has seen happen, and the Jazz have only won two playoff series over the past decade. However, they've tied a franchise record for wins in a 25-game start, so perhaps merely clearing regular-season hurdles would start to change the narrative.
"If they can beat the Lakers (in the regular season), I think that will change some people's tune," Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook head NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told ESPN, relaying that the Jazz have only received the ninth-most handle to win the championship. That means there is more money wagered on eight other teams, and that group even includes the 11-13 Houston Rockets and 14-12 Golden State Warriors.
Utah has won 16 of its past 17 games, including a ridiculous 15-1-1 mark against the point spread. The Jazz own the league's best cover percentage (18-7 ATS overall), thanks to being the only team that ranks in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while also leading the league in three-pointers made per game.
While recreational bettors may not see value in the long term, they have noticed this recent tear and jumped on board the gravy train. "They keep riding them out just because they're cashing tickets on them. So you just see their spreads getting a little larger," Sherman said, citing approximately 75% of SuperBook handle in Utah games on the Jazz, leaving 25% on Utah's opponent. He also relayed those percentages have become more pronounced over the past couple weeks, but a 3-1 ratio is fairly common for any top-tier team.
Inevitably, the power rating has also trickled up. Sherman said he would favor the defending champion Lakers by four points over Utah on a neutral court, but that line would have been "probably upward near six" entering the season.
The Jazz (-1.5) host the Bucks on Friday night and may still be without point guard Mike Conley in what could be a litmus test that might generate futures tickets if Utah prevails. However, oddsmakers have already reacted to this recent run and adjusted the betting board, which means the juicy odds are long gone.
The Jazz opened the season with 36-1 odds at Circa and reached as high as 55-1 following a slow start. Currently, Circa offers two-way wagering options for every team, posting +1165 on a Utah title and -2065 on the "NO." That two-way market is a true gauge of where Utah sits in the marketplace, which is about fifth.
"I have the Jazz and Bucks ranked similarly, while the Clippers and Lakers battle injuries and urgency. It's finally come together after years of early-season underachieving," professional bettor Erin Rynning told ESPN, also sharing that he considers them a legitimate contender. "We will find out just how good the Jazz are with a schedule upcoming of Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia, and both L.A. teams."
Mitchell, 24, is a blossoming star and already has delivered memorable moments, highlighted by last year's epic seven-game series with Denver that featured scoring performances of 44, 51 and 57 points. Center Rudy Gobert, a two-time winner of the Defensive Player of the Year Award, is widely considered the league's best screener, which helps create good looks for an offense that ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage. Conley was acquired via trade in 2019 and now seems to have found a groove, currently leading the NBA in plus-minus and ranking second in improved net rating while on the floor.
All of this adds up to a franchise that is certainly trending in the right direction, well on its way to a fourth straight season of improved win percentage. However, losing in the first round in back-to-back postseasons is the blunt truth -- until it is not. The 2003-04 Detroit Pistons (15-1 preseason odds), 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (20-1), 2014-15 Golden State Warriors (28-1) and 2018-19 Toronto Raptors (15-1) all broke through and won a surprise title. The Jazz would love to join that list and make Shaq become "The Big Influencer."
