When new data becomes available, it's best to update predictions. Even the bold ones.
A mere four weeks ago, I made a bold prediction for every team entering the 2023 NFL season as part of our team previews. Back in those halcyon days of early September, the Cincinnati Bengals were Super Bowl contenders, Aaron Rodgers was healthy and we were all gearing up for the Kenny Pickett Year 2 breakout that was definitely happening. We've learned a lot since then.
So let's update our predictions! Based on what we now know, I gave myself three choices for each bold prediction:
Stick to what I had
Pivot to a related prediction, perhaps with a less lofty target
Switch to an entirely new prediction, generally because my initial choice is already completely wrong
I ended up with 10 brand-new predictions. We'll group these in three tiers -- sticking, pivoting and switching -- and teams are in alphabetical order within each tier:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Predictions on which I'm sticking
Chicago Bears
Original prediction: QB Justin Fields posts a double-digit sack rate, again.
Why I'm sticking: Fields has an 11% sack rate through four weeks. Left tackle Braxton Jones is on injured reserve, but this is simply going to be a problem for Fields no matter who is in front of him. His average time to throw is 3.07 seconds, third longest among all quarterbacks. I thought this would be the factor that sunk Chicago's season, but it turns out there are plenty of other reasons this season has gone so poorly.
