Micah Parsons hasn't finished any of three seasons as the NFL sack leader, but the Cowboys' superstar pass rusher seems primed to rise to that next level.
That's according to our projected sack model, which forecasts season sack totals for veteran pass rushers. The statistical model -- now in its fourth year -- is based on each player's past performance and their situation entering the 2024 NFL season. It's the same model we used in 2023 (with minor updates) and includes the following inputs:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Past sack rates of opposing quarterbacks on a player's 2024 schedule
Projected team win totals (because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more)
How often a player rushes from the edge as opposed to the interior
To be included, players must be defensive linemen or linebackers. They also must have rushed the passer at least 150 times in one of the past two seasons, rushed the passer on at least 25% of their snaps last season and be projected to play at least 250 snaps this season. Rookies were excluded. The model forecasts the mean outcome for a player's season. And while the numbers might strike you as low, consider that this is projecting the average of all outcomes for the player -- including injuries.
Is 2024 the year for Parsons to rise to the top? Let's dive into the top 10, but jump down for the full list and the top pass-rush duos in the league.
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Top 10 | More to watch | Top duos
