Myles Garrett broke the single-season sack record last season, but a different edge rusher leads our 2026 sack projections.
That player? The Detroit Lions' Aidan Hutchinson, who our statistical model forecasts to rack up 12.5 sacks this season.
This is the sixth consecutive year we've run our sack forecast for veteran pass rushers based on a statistical model that uses information about a player's past performance and current circumstances to project how many sacks he will record in the upcoming season. The model's inputs include:
Sack totals and rates for each of the past two seasons
Projected snaps, via ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate, which uses data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Past sack rates for the quarterbacks on each player's schedule
Team win totals from the betting market
Where a player aligns
Age
Only defensive linemen and edge rushers are included, and rookies are excluded. Also, though we recently upgraded our pass rush win rate metrics, this analysis features the legacy version of that metric. Future years will incorporate the upgrades. These projections often appear low. However, they are a projection of a player's mean outcome in 2026 -- including injuries. If we could guarantee health for every player, everyone's forecast would be much higher.
Now, let's dive into the 2026 projections, looking at the top 10 forecasts, plus a few other notables (including one outside the top 50). There's also a top-50 list below.
Jump to:
Projected top 10 | Full top-50 list
More notable projections to watch
1. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 12.5
2025 sack total: 14.5
This is the second straight year that Hutchinson leads our sack projections, despite having never actually led the league in sacks. But everything lines up for him to have a huge season.
Two years ago, he had a prolific first five games (7.5 sacks, 35% pass rush win rate) before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Last season, Hutchinson stayed healthy and delivered 14.5 sacks in 17 games. If anything, this projection might be underrating Hutchinson, because while his legacy pass rush win rate was above average, he moved up to fourth among edge rushers in the updated version.
The other big reason Hutchinson's forecast is so strong is playing time. Unlike many pass rushers, Hutchinson rarely comes off the field. He played 91% of his possible defensive snaps last season, a much higher rate than players such as Will Anderson Jr. (66%) or Nik Bonitto (62%).
Hutchinson has two other perks working in his favor, the quality of the Lions' overall team (eighth in ESPN's Football Power Index) and the ease of their schedule (second easiest, according to FPI). That means Detroit should be ahead often, which is when sacks most frequently occur.
2. Micah Parsons, Green Bay Packers
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 11.1
2025 sack total: 12.5
The X factor is how much Parsons will play. Clay has Parsons projected to play 619 snaps this season, slightly down from the 669 he played in 14 games in 2025 -- which indicates a slight increase in snaps per game if Parsons were to come back from his knee injury in Week 6 and play the rest of the season. Still, it's incredible that Parsons is projected to miss a third of the season yet still manages to have the second-best forecast.
How?
If we compare him to Myles Garrett, Parsons had a better pass rush win rate in each of the past two seasons, more sacks per game two years ago, is more than three years younger and is on a team that blitzes more. But if there's one overriding reason Parsons is ranked here, it's the combination of win rates alongside his previous double-digit sack seasons.
Parsons is a master of winning on a down-to-down basis but has never had more than 14 sacks in a season. But that could happen at any moment.
3. Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 10.5
2025 sack total: 12
Anderson emerged as truly elite in 2025, finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to go along with his 12 sacks. There's no reason to expect a drop-off this season.
Anderson has proved himself the past two seasons in terms of sacks and pass rush win rate, is young and on a relatively good team (the Texans' win total at DraftKings is 9.5, shaded to the over) with a particularly good defense. He and Danielle Hunter (8.7 projected sacks, 12th most) make up arguably the NFL's most fearsome pass rushing duo.
Plus, the Texans get the additional bonus of facing a sack-friendly schedule of quarterbacks that includes games against Lamar Jackson (9.8% sack rate), Justin Herbert (8.8%), Jaxson Dart (8.5%) and Cam Ward (9.4%) twice.
4. Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 10.3
2025 sack total: 14
Bonitto backed up his breakout 13.5-sack campaign in 2024 with 14 sacks in 2025. This season, he gets the benefit of being part of a Broncos defense that is not only strong overall (with great cornerbacks) but also blitzes at an above-average rate.
If there's one thing holding Bonitto back, it's playing time. Last season, he only played 62% of Denver's defensive snaps and was in only 60% of the time in clear pass-rushing situations. That puts a ceiling on his forecast. In addition, Bonitto is a player we might be overrating based on the use of the legacy win rates, which were higher on him than the updated version released a week ago. Still, this is a mighty strong projection.
5. Myles Garrett, Los Angeles Rams
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 10.1
2025 sack total: 23
Yes, I'm as surprised as you are that Garrett is not No. 1 on this list. Even though I know how the model works, I still thought the NFL-record 23 sacks from last season would be enough to put him over the top. Not quite, it turns out!
There are three primary factors working against Garrett:
1. He is 30 years old
2. The Rams blitzed only 19% of the time last season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL
3. Los Angeles faces a quarterback slate that takes sacks less frequently than average
That's enough to hold back Garrett's projection, even coming off a record season in which he was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. And his age is a definite factor. While it's possible Garrett will be the same type of elite player well into his 30s, this model considers the drop-off of some previous edge rushers at this point in their careers.
Do I think having Garrett fifth is underselling him a bit? I do, especially since the model is not considering the possibility of Aaron Donald unretiring and taking some heat off him. But there are real variables that are holding back Garrett's 2026 sack projection.
6. Brian Burns, New York Giants
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 9.7
2025 sack total: 16.5
Burns has always been a very good pass rusher -- and something of a pass rush win rate darling -- and exploded for 16.5 sacks in his second season in New York. And the Giants' pass rush has gotten even deeper.
Those 16.5 sacks are enough to launch Burns, 28, into the top 10. But he has a few things working against him. His forecast is negatively affected by only having 8.5 sacks in 17 games in 2024. And while the Giants have a great pass rush, they aren't expected to be a great team. Middling teams don't play with a lead as often, which means fewer desperate opponents frequently passing to catch up.
7. Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 9.4
2025 sack total: 2
This assumes that Bosa is healthy enough to play Week 1, which isn't a guarantee right now. The star edge rusher has been out for most of training camp with soreness and tendinitis as he works his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September.
Despite the injury, Bosa's previous history is enough to include him in the top 10. In 2024, Bosa recorded nine sacks and also ranked fifth in pass rush win rate at edge. And now he's being coordinated by Raheem Morris, whose Falcons team blitzed on 35% of its defensive snaps last season, the second-highest rate in the league.
8. Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 9.3
2025 sack total: 13
Tuipulotu's upward trajectory continued in a big way in 2025, his third season in the NFL, as he followed up an 8.5-sack 2024 campaign with 13 last season.
Tuipulotu has never been a top win rate player and finished well below average in pass rush win rate last season despite his sack total. That hinders his projection, but doesn't crush it. There are players who consistently record more sacks than their win rates would suggest, and it's possible Tuipulotu is one of them. Still, not winning as frequently on a down-to-down basis caps his upside.
9. Trey Hendrickson, Baltimore Ravens
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 9.2
2025 sack total: 4
Hendrickson had only four sacks in his final season in Cincinnati but accomplished that total in seven games due to injuries. He did record a league-leading 17.5 sacks in 2024, which is much more important for his placement on this list.
He's also a pass rush win rate stalwart -- he ranked second at edge in 2024. That, coupled with his prolific 2024 sack total, overrides Hendrickson's limited sack number last season and his advancing age (he turns 32 in December).
10. Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 8.9
2025 sack total: 9.5
Highsmith tops the Steelers' edge trio in sack projections after accumulating 9.5 sacks in 13 games. Similarly, his six sacks in 2024 were accomplished in only 11 games. The model not only evaluates players by their total sacks in each of the previous two seasons, but also their sacks per game, which helps Highsmith.
He is also a relatively strong rush win rate player and faces a favorable slate of quarterbacks. Two games against the Browns likely means facing Deshaun Watson, who had a massive 12.5% sack rate in 2024, Shedeur Sanders (a high 9.1% sack rate in 2025), or a combination of the two. Highsmith will also get two games against Lamar Jackson (9.8%), and faces Cam Ward (8.9%), Tyler Shough (8.3%) and Drake Maye (7.8%), who were sacked at a significantly higher rate than the 6.2% average.
Other notable projections
20. Odafe Oweh, Washington Commanders
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 7.0
2025 sack total: 7.5
Oweh is coming off an interesting season in which he recorded zero sacks in five games with the Ravens, following by 7.5 in 12 with the Chargers after being traded. Which was the real Oweh?
I'd say ... both? Oweh was actually recording a strong pass rush win rate before the trade -- it just didn't result in sacks. The sacks eventually came once he went to Los Angeles and Washington paid big money for Oweh to fill their edge-rushing void.
Will he? To some degree. Oweh has demonstrated an ability to win on a play-to-play level and can deliver sacks. And finishing 20th on this list is solid, even if the 7.0 forecast doesn't feel amazing. But Washington fans should be realistic. Oweh is a good pass rusher, but not a great one. At $24 million per year in today's cap environment, that's essentially what they paid for.
22. Abdul Carter, New York Giants
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 7.0
2025 sack total: 4
This is a bullish forecast for a player coming off a four-sack season -- especially because the model does not explicitly consider draft capital (Carter was the third overall pick in 2025) in its computations.
But what it does see is a young player who had a top-10 pass rush win rate. That's enough to generate a strong number despite being on a below-average team with a defensive coordinator who didn't blitz much last season. I wouldn't be shocked if Carter is in the top 10 of the sack leaderboard come January.
26. Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 6.9
2025 sack total: 11
Simmons is the highest-ranked defensive tackle on this list. And while 6.9 sacks might feel insulting considering how well he played last season, it speaks to how much playing in the interior reduces sack expectations.
But there are other factors keeping Simmons' projection in check. As incredible as he was last season -- he was a first-team All-Pro and finished second in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle -- it was the first year he registered double-digit stats or finished that high in win rate. Plus, being on a bad team will limit his sack opportunities, even if he overcame that last season.
51. Dexter Lawrence II, Cincinnati Bengals
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 5.6
2025 sack total: 0.5
After a down 2025 season, Lawrence was traded to the Bengals from the Giants for the 10th overall pick. What kind of player will the Bengals get -- the Lawrence of a few years ago or who he was last season? The projections are splitting the difference.
Lawrence's sacks fell off last season despite him playing less nose tackle than the previous couple of years. But the projections won't totally quit him because of what he has done in the past. Plus, the Bengals face the easiest schedule in the league this season overall (which helps their predicted win total) and the easiest schedule of quarterbacks in terms of past sack rate.
