The star is gone from the Detroit Lions receiving corps with the retirement of Calvin Johnson. (No, don’t draft him. He’s not coming back.) But the Lions have a deep group that could have more balanced production in 2016.
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 107.4 targets, 67.8 receptions, 925.7 yards, 13.6 yards per reception, 5.3 touchdowns
Over or under: Over. On all of them. The targets might be somewhat close, but I’d expect big things from Jones in this offense. He’s really developed a chemistry with Matthew Stafford during training camp and could be in for a really big season now that he’s out of A.J. Green’s shadow in Cincinnati. As long as he stays healthy, he could have a statistical line of over 70 catches, around 1,200 yards and seven or eight touchdowns. He’s going to be Detroit’s deep threat. He tracks the ball well and has really good hands. If the Lions are trailing often in games, he could see even bigger numbers. He’s got a chance to become a star this season.
ESPN Fantasy Projections: 131.3 targets, 89 receptions, 1,051 yards, 11.8 yards per reception, 5.5 touchdowns, 7.2 carries, 45.8 yards, .2 touchdowns.
Over or under: The numbers are close to what I think Tate could produce this season, but I’d go slightly over on all of them. The Lions might be in a position where they have to pass a lot and Tate is going to be the short-to-intermediate option. His role likely won’t change much -- get him in space and let him make defenders miss -- but he should get more opportunities with Johnson gone. Stats like 95 catches for around 1,100-1,150 yards are realistic for him based off the last two seasons in Detroit. Don’t be surprised if he’s the primary third-down chain-mover for Stafford, too.
ESPN Fantasy Projections: 65.7 targets, 43.8 receptions, 579.9 yards, 13.2 yards per reception, 2.9 touchdowns.
Over or under: Boldin is an interesting case with the Lions. He’s the clear No. 3 receiver, which is not a role he’s been in all that often. I would go under, but not by much, on his receptions and yards. He catches almost everything thrown to him so he could be an attractive target for Stafford and figure the Lions to run a lot of three receiver sets. So he’ll be on the field a lot. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are around 35-40 catches for 500 yards. The touchdowns are unpredictable. With the Lions likely throwing a lot, he’s a good bench player to have but he’s likely more of a boom-or-bust option this season.
ESPN Fantasy Projections: 17.9 targets, 10.4 receptions, 141.7 yards, 13.7 yards per reception, .7 touchdowns
Over or under: Before the Boldin signing, this would have been all overs. Now? He’s an injury fill-in on the outside or in the slot, so keep that in mind. Those are probably pretty accurate numbers overall, especially since the No. 4 receiver in this offense is really the sixth or seventh option for the Lions after Marvin Jones, Tate, Boldin, Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick and maybe Ameer Abdullah. In other words, don’t expect a lot. If he wins the punt return job, though, he could be useful in leagues with return yards.
