When the NFL schedule was released back on April 21, I scanned the Week 1 slate for a potential double-digit favorite, noticing that every Super Bowl contender either opened on the road or was hosting a formidable opponent.
Only the New England Patriots stood out as an option on opening Thursday night, and after the announcement of Tom Brady's suspension, they're no longer a safe option. That's when it hit me: who was left as a serviceable eliminator option?
If you're unfamiliar with how an eliminator pool works, the premise is that you pick one team to win each week, after which point they will be unavailable for you to select for the rest of the season. If your team wins, you stay alive; if they don't, you're out. While the format may seem almost too simplistic, the process of staying alive is anything but.
Navigating the terrain won't be easy in the toughest eliminator Week 1 ever, but if you survive to Week 2, this could be a year where a lot of your competition will be left bitterly second-guessing their friends' picks each week while wondering how they are no longer in contention themselves.
Here are my best Week 1 eliminator plays, in order.
1. Denver Broncos (-4 vs. Baltimore Ravens)
I know what a lot of you are probably thinking, why waste Denver in Week 1? I get it -- the goal of eliminator isn't to last eight weeks, and you need to leave yourself options to go the distance. And in a normal year with multiple solid teams garnering big spreads, I'd agree, but 2015 isn't a normal year.
Eliminator is all about weighing opportunity and risk, and looking up and down my options chart week by week, I don't see another key spot for Denver. Weeks 1, 2, 7 and 13 are the hardest of the season, the type where if you didn't save a Super Bowl contender to help you survive Sunday, you will be sweating in the fourth quarter hoping your 2.5-point favorite can eke out a victory.
I have the Broncos as options in five games (Week 1 vs. BAL, Week 5 at OAK, Week 6 at CLE, Week 11 at CHI and Week 14 vs. OAK), only one of which falls in those tough weeks where having Denver available could prove useful. The fact that only three percent of ESPN's eliminator pool players are taking the Broncos tells me that a vast majority are overlooking a solid pick.
The team has the fourth-largest point spread of any team in Week 1, Manning is 3-0 lifetime with the Broncos in Week 1 home openers, and he also boasts an 8-2 lifetime record against the Ravens, including a 49-27 blowout victory on opening Thursday night in 2013 when Baltimore was the reigning Super Bowl champ.
2. Green Bay Packers (-6.5 at Chicago Bears)
If you're choosing solely based on the spread, this is your pick. The Packers opened at minus-4, but steady action has come in supporting Green Bay for the past few months, pushing the line right up against a key number of 7. Now at minus-6.5, the Packers are the heaviest Week 1 favorites.
If that isn't reason enough to consider them for your choice, Aaron Rodgers flat-out owns the Bears, and his history at Soldier Field should bolster the validity of this play. Including playoff games, he's 6-2 lifetime in Chicago and hasn't lost there since 2010, despite facing Bears teams that for many of those seasons looked far superior to the roster they're rolling with in 2015.
So why isn't this my first choice? The Packers show up on my chart in eight different weeks as a solid option (Week 1 at CHI, Week 3 vs. KC, Week 4 at SF, Week 5 vs. STL, Week 10 vs. DET, Week 12 vs. CHI, Week 13 at DET, Week 15 at OAK), including an appearance in the dreaded Week 13, so burning them early will eliminate a lot of flexibility down the road as you start to make the tough decisions. Still, if you're just looking for the safest play the Packers are probably it.
One thing to note: I don't include Week 17 when listing the options. There are too many unknown variables with players resting and teams in and out of contention to make a determination on a Week 17 game before the season even begins. Thus, the Packers hosting the Vikings in Week 17 wasn't an omission but a merely a game that isn't an option (yet!).
3. New York Jets (-3 vs. Cleveland Browns)
This is undoubtedly risky, as the Jets are unproven and Vegas sees them as a .500 team (the Westgate SuperBook has their win total at 7.5, with a heavy vig on the over). However, there are so few decent options in Week 1 that I'm throwing the Jets out there for two reasons.
This current Browns team now holds the dubious honor of losing the most consecutive season openers -- 10 -- of any team in NFL history. I'm not big on using an NFL team's history to support a claim, especially when multiple coaching and starting QB changes occur over the time span in question, but this streak is so prolific that it suggests a culture of losing rather than circumstance, and that can't be ignored.
Before Geno Smith's broken jaw, I was considering the Jets as a serviceable albeit risky play, and my opinion hasn't changed with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Vegas doesn't see this as much of a downgrade, if any at all, with some shifting the line a half point in favor of the Browns and others remaining steady at Jets minus-3. Although casinos tend not to make line adjustments as often as the public think, they might due to injuries and roster changes. This one seems to be a clear case of the delta between the starter and the backup being very small.
What's more, Darrelle Revis is back in town and should make life difficult for whichever QB the Browns choose to start, which will more than likely end up being veteran Josh McCown. With Revis' presence in the secondary, the Jets will be able to load the box and focus on making the Browns one-dimensional. If you can stomach the risk, this could be your play. And if the Browns do end up breaking their streak, at least you'll know that history was on your side.
4. The argument against the Carolina Panthers (-4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars)
On ESPN, the Panthers are currently being selected more than any other team in Week 1 at 26.8 percent. I can see why the matchup seems enticing. It's a chance to use a borderline playoff contender in what will assuredly be one of their highest spreads of the year as a 4.5-point favorite. But for me, the risk is too great. Cam Newton is winless for his career in Week 1 in three attempts, and he just lost his No. 1 pass-catching target (Kelvin Benjamin) for the season with a torn ACL.
If you like the Panthers, then this is the time to strike; Week 1 is one of only two reasonable options to use them for the entire year, so it could end up being now or never. But the Broncos' spread is close enough to that of the Panthers, both of which are outside the key number of minus-3, that gaining a half point with Carolina isn't worth the risk of sweating out a mediocre team on the road this early on.
