Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 428 417 -11 17 1291 13 100 799 7 2. Bijan Robinson , ATL 325 371 46 17 1284 7 80 627 3 3. Jonathan Taylor , IND 299 362 63 17 1395 14 46 306 1 4. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 292 367 75 17 1032 7 76 558 3 5. Chase Brown , CIN 277 283 5 17 1020 6 70 508 3 6. De'Von Achane , MIA 264 323 59 16 1061 4 68 494 3 7. Ashton Jeanty , LV 259 245 -13 17 1131 6 60 408 2 8. Javonte Williams , DAL 252 243 -9 16 1060 11 39 275 2 9. Kyren Williams , LAR 251 263 12 17 1095 11 38 313 1 10. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 244 254 10 17 1114 8 42 293 2 11. James Cook , BUF 240 302 62 17 1257 9 33 238 1 12. Saquon Barkley , PHI 238 232 -6 16 1178 7 40 292 2 13. Derrick Henry , BAL 238 280 42 17 1220 15 17 117 0 14. Josh Jacobs , GB 230 237 7 15 1008 10 37 244 1 15. Kenneth Gainwell , PIT 218 221 3 17 499 6 70 472 3 16. D'Andre Swift , CHI 211 229 18 16 964 8 40 272 0 17. Jaylen Warren , PIT 206 217 11 16 875 8 38 243 1 18. Rico Dowdle , CAR 203 216 13 17 1000 5 41 275 1 19. Breece Hall , NYJ 195 208 13 16 1023 3 37 272 2 20. RJ Harvey , DEN 189 207 17 17 612 5 47 328 3 21. Tony Pollard , TEN 185 186 1 17 1034 4 33 236 0 22. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 181 192 11 17 956 6 30 197 1 23. Woody Marks , HOU 176 151 -25 16 813 6 27 225 2 24. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 175 206 32 17 757 6 35 237 1 25. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 174 181 7 16 747 11 18 144 1 26. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 162 170 8 14 876 7 22 149 0 27. David Montgomery , DET 162 167 5 17 640 9 24 171 0 28. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 160 161 0 15 760 2 37 272 1 29. Rachaad White , TB 157 143 -14 17 557 5 38 257 2 30. Kareem Hunt , KC 153 145 -7 17 664 8 20 141 1 31. Kyle Monangai , CHI 152 147 -5 17 709 6 26 187 1 32. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 150 179 29 14 522 6 27 258 2 33. Bucky Irving , TB 137 139 1 10 752 2 28 199 1 34. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 133 125 -8 15 571 2 33 216 2 35. Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WAS 132 140 8 17 723 7 12 75 0 36. Aaron Jones , MIN 130 119 -11 12 547 2 33 238 1 37. Alvin Kamara , NO 129 101 -29 11 582 2 32 235 1 38. Kimani Vidal , LAC 129 118 -11 13 643 5 18 121 1 39. Omarion Hampton , LAC 128 136 8 9 536 4 28 189 0 40. Blake Corum , LAR 122 122 1 17 613 7 11 82 0 41. Cam Skattebo , NYG 121 128 6 8 425 5 27 177 1 42. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 121 123 2 17 616 6 13 82 0 43. Michael Carter , ARI 119 99 -20 13 398 2 36 260 1 44. Tyjae Spears , TEN 119 112 -7 13 329 2 42 271 1 45. Jordan Mason , MIN 116 129 13 16 674 5 14 84 0 46. Bam Knight , ARI 115 93 -22 12 345 5 24 181 1 47. Devin Singletary , NYG 114 109 -5 17 487 6 16 108 1 48. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 110 116 6 10 636 4 12 79 0 49. Isiah Pacheco , KC 104 87 -17 13 527 2 22 137 1 50. Nick Chubb , HOU 100 88 -12 15 506 4 16 120 0 51. Ty Johnson , BUF 98 100 3 17 217 4 27 200 1 52. Emanuel Wilson , GB 97 95 -2 17 524 3 15 90 0 53. Dylan Sampson , CLE 93 88 -5 15 282 1 32 211 1 54. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 93 92 -1 13 455 7 3 24 0 55. Sean Tucker , TB 92 91 -1 17 367 6 9 61 1 56. Brashard Smith , KC 87 63 -23 17 194 1 30 190 2 57. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 81 89 7 15 346 4 12 81 0 58. Samaje Perine , CIN 81 78 -3 15 358 3 16 115 0 59. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 69 73 4 17 197 1 26 172 0 60. Brian Robinson Jr. , SF 67 63 -5 17 372 2 9 66 1 61. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 64 54 -10 17 282 4 8 47 0 62. Jerome Ford , CLE 64 44 -20 13 104 1 25 175 1 63. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 63 71 8 16 190 1 21 177 0 64. Devin Neal , NO 60 60 0 10 248 1 16 115 0 65. Emari Demercado , ARI 58 58 1 13 212 1 15 120 1 66. Ray Davis , BUF 56 64 8 17 247 2 10 74 1 67. Jaylen Wright , MIA 55 48 -7 10 290 2 7 45 0 68. Tyler Badie , DEN 54 35 -19 16 35 0 25 180 1 69. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 53 57 4 17 5 1 21 178 2 70. Justice Hill , BAL 53 65 13 10 81 1 23 154 0 71. Tank Bigsby , JAC 3 1 -1 1 22 0 0 0 0 71. Tank Bigsby , PHI 50 53 3 16 242 3 3 20 0 72. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 51 55 5 13 262 1 10 59 0 73. Audric Estime , NO 48 48 0 7 197 2 11 75 0 74. Zavier Scott , MIN 42 39 -3 16 142 0 12 97 1 75. James Conner , ARI 39 33 -6 3 132 1 7 51 1 76. Trey Benson , ARI 39 35 -4 4 130 1 13 82 0 77. Malik Davis , DAL 39 41 2 10 226 2 3 34 0 78. Chris Brooks , GB 38 33 -6 17 115 0 14 99 0 79. Ameer Abdullah , IND 35 36 0 13 61 1 14 92 0 80. Hunter Luepke , DAL 34 37 3 17 68 0 12 87 1 81. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 34 24 -10 17 46 1 9 78 1 82. Raheem Mostert , LV 31 29 -2 12 103 0 10 70 0 83. Kendre Miller , NO 31 33 2 7 208 1 4 28 0 84. Jawhar Jordan , HOU 31 30 -1 4 173 1 6 39 0 85. LeQuint Allen , JAC 29 25 -5 17 98 0 9 58 0 86. Jaret Patterson , LAC 29 26 -4 6 160 1 4 20 0 87. Raheim Sanders , CLE 29 20 -9 4 103 2 3 25 0 88. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 29 31 3 8 166 1 5 31 0 89. Will Shipley , PHI 24 18 -7 15 63 0 9 68 0 90. Miles Sanders , DAL 24 27 3 4 87 1 7 45 0 91. Jaydon Blue , DAL 22 20 -2 5 169 1 1 5 0 92. Rasheen Ali , BAL 21 24 4 15 32 0 9 64 0 93. Antonio Gibson , NE 20 23 3 5 98 1 2 19 0 94. Andrew Beck , NYJ 18 23 5 17 2 0 6 56 1 95. Trevor Etienne , CAR 18 12 -7 17 88 1 2 16 0 96. DJ Giddens , IND 18 10 -9 9 104 1 1 10 0 97. Trayveon Williams , CLE 15 16 1 4 32 0 6 41 0 97. Trayveon Williams , LAC 3 1 -2 3 13 0 1 5 0 98. Adam Prentice , DEN 18 16 -2 17 34 1 6 39 0 99. Austin Ekeler , WAS 18 13 -4 2 68 0 5 44 0 100. Braelon Allen , NYJ 17 15 -2 4 76 0 2 17 0 101. Kaleb Johnson , PIT 16 9 -8 10 116 0 2 10 0 102. Alec Ingold , MIA 16 14 -2 17 8 0 8 72 0 103. Ty Chandler , MIN 16 9 -7 3 63 0 3 20 0 104. Terrell Jennings , NE 16 15 -1 7 79 1 1 6 0 105. George Holani , SEA 15 21 6 11 96 0 2 13 0 106. Zamir White , LV 14 10 -4 6 55 0 5 29 0 107. Hassan Haskins , LAC 13 10 -3 12 72 0 3 23 0 108. British Brooks , HOU 13 8 -5 15 61 1 0 0 0 109. Khalil Herbert , NYJ 13 7 -6 7 65 0 3 20 0 110. AJ Dillon , PHI 11 9 -2 7 50 0 2 18 0 111. Tyler Goodson , IND 11 5 -6 11 41 0 2 14 1 112. Evan Hull , NO 11 6 -5 6 86 0 1 5 0 113. Kene Nwangwu , NYJ 11 11 0 12 51 1 1 6 0 114. Corey Kiner , ARI 11 9 -1 4 49 0 2 20 0 115. C.J. Ham , MIN 10 16 5 11 9 1 2 12 0 116. Najee Harris , LAC 10 12 1 3 54 0 3 18 0 117. Julius Chestnut , TEN 10 4 -6 17 38 1 1 15 0 118. Dylan Laube , LV 10 4 -6 17 35 0 3 22 0 119. Tahj Brooks , CIN 9 6 -3 16 69 0 1 10 0 120. Phil Mafah , DAL 8 11 3 1 19 1 2 9 0 121. D'Ernest Johnson , ARI 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 121. D'Ernest Johnson , NE 7 3 -5 7 49 0 0 0 0 122. Dameon Pierce , HOU 6 3 -3 4 41 0 1 6 0 122. Dameon Pierce , KC 2 1 -1 1 16 0 0 0 0 123. Reggie Gilliam , BUF 7 5 -2 17 5 1 1 15 0 124. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 6 4 -2 2 32 0 2 9 0 125. Cam Akers , MIN 4 7 3 3 20 0 1 6 0 125. Cam Akers , SEA 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 126. Nathan Carter , ATL 4 4 0 7 39 0 0 0 0 127. Brittain Brown , CHI 4 10 6 3 21 0 1 7 0 128. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 4 5 1 11 33 0 0 0 0 129. Patrick Ricard , BAL 3 2 -1 11 3 0 1 14 0
