This is the first late September I can remember that has at least 10 legitimate NFL MVP candidates, yet it sure seems like Josh Allen is poised for a run that makes 10-1 odds a great value play right now.
The Buffalo Bills are -400 favorites in the AFC East, which was expected to be much more competitive than it's current form. Both the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots have quarterback issues, so it sure looks like the Bills will circle the wagons fairly easily.
As I laid out last week, 11 of the last 14 MVP winners were a QB from a one- or two-seed. So while certain players like betting favorite Kyler Murray (+600) and Lamar Jackson (20-1) are dynamic playmakers who will post impressive stats, I do not view them as realistic candidates. Ultimately, like it or not, voters will typically reward the QB of an elite team, so we must account for that in our handicapping process.
With already having a road win in Miami, the Bills should finish 6-0 or 5-1 in division play. The road slate does pose three legitimate tests: Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Winning at least one of those would likely result in a final record of 13-4 or so. That should be good enough for a top seed, especially with Kansas City starting 1-2 this year.
